The Jaguars will go on the road to face the San Francisco 49ers in week 4 of the NFL season. Both teams are coming off sloppy wins over divisional opponents and will look to improve their play in week 4. Earlier in the week it was announced that quarterback Brock Purdy will be starting, and defensive lineman Nick Bosa is out for the season.
Purdy has not played since week 1 because of a toe injury, so it will be interesting to see how the Jaguars approach this. The 49ers rank 26th in rushing yards and 29th in yards per attempt, while the Jaguars are 4th in rushing yards allowed and 14th in yards per attempt allowed. This will factor heavily into the game plan because of Purdy's injury.
If he is forced into obvious passing situations, the Jaguars could take a heavy blitz approach and force him to run on a potentially bad toe. The 49ers wide receivers could also be hampered, with both Juan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall listed as questionable heading into Saturday. While the Jaguars' pass defense has been below average, they have forced the most interceptions in the league with 7. Stopping the rushing attack early will be a big factor in how the defense is able to perform.
While stopping the rushing attack will be important, stopping the running back passing game will be equally, if not more important. Christian McCaffery has the most receptions and the 2nd most receiving yards on the 49ers while also having more receiving yards than rushing yards. The open-field tackling has improved through three games, but getting a player as elusive as McCaffery down will not be as easy. If Anthony Campanile and the defense are to take a blitz-heavy approach, the short checkdowns must be accounted for, or it will be a long afternoon.
The Jaguars offense is looking to bounce back from a rough showing against the Texans, where they scored just 17 points and had less than 300 yards of total offense. A big factor in this will be the penalties. Jacksonville averages 8.7 penalties per game, ranking 8th in the league. Many of these penalties have killed drives or put the offense behind the sticks. Against a stout defense on the road, penalties will be extra costly.
Through three weeks, Brian Thomas Jr. has just 7 catches for 115 yards. He was able to save the game against the Texans with a 46-yard catch-and-run to set up the game-winning touchdown, but has been mostly quiet outside of this. Will this be the game where Thomas gets back on track? It will be difficult against a stout pass defense, but Liam Coen could look to get Thomas involved early.
In week 3, Travis Hunter had just 1 catch for 21 yards. His play on defense has been exactly what the Jaguars have hoped for, but on the offensive side it has been a different story. Travis is also someone who Coen could make a concerted effort to get involved early. He does not need to have a monster game, but a 50-75-yard game would be a huge difference maker in how the offense performs.
So far in the season, quarterback Trevor Lawrence has not played to his standard, posting 4 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a 55.8% completion percentage. While Lawrence has flashed brilliance at times, he has had costly turnovers at others. This is a massive opportunity to have a statement game. This is the best defense he has faced so far, so it will be important to see how he handles adversity. Turnovers have been a problem so far in the year, so playing a safe and smart brand of football will be the key to win, particularly in the redzone.
Liam Coen has made a concerted effort to establish the running game on offense. Through the first two weeks, the Jaguars ranked first in rushing yards and yards per attempt, but in week 3 this was largely negated by the Texans defense, rushing for just 86 yards on 3.5 yards per attempt. The 49ers rush defense has been stout, ranking 7th in yards per attempt allowed. If the running game is negated once again, a way around this could be screens and quick passes to get easy yards. This will keep the defense more off balance and give the receivers more confidence after a rough week 3 performance.
The last key player to look for is tight end Brenton Strange. Strange has been the offense's most reliable target so far, leading the team in yards, receptions, and is catching 81% of his passes. If Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter are once again struggling, Brenton Strange could be the go-to receiver on key plays.
This is a strength vs. strength game, with both teams looking to bounce back offensively. The Jaguars have played well so far, but this is the biggest test of the season so far, and it will be interesting to see how they handle adversity on the road in a tough environment. A win would be a big statement showing that they can compete with some of the better teams in the NFL. A loss would be a sign that the team is not ready just yet. Will the Jaguars play up to the challenge or get sent back to the drawing board?