Week 11 preview
The Jaguars will host the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11 in a 2022 playoff rematch. This game will have big implications on the wildcard picture at the end of the season, and they are each going in opposite directions, with the Jaguars losing 3 of their last 4, while the Chargers have won 4 of their last 5.
Injury report
The story of the season for both teams so far has been the injury bug. Travis Hunter has been ruled out for the season, while other players such as Eric Murray, Brenton Strange, Jourdan Lewis, and Brian Thomas Jr. have had lingering injuries throughout the season. On Sunday, the Jaguars will be without cornerback Jourdan Lewis, right tackle Anton Harrison, safety Eric Murray, and tight ends Hunter Long and Brenton Strange, with Brian Thomas Jr. listed as questionable.
The Chargers have not had it any better, having 10 players placed on injured reserve or suffering season-ending injuries. Some of these names include offensive linemen Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, as well as running back Omarion Hampton. 5 players are listed as questionable heading into Sunday, with the most notable being wide receiver Quentin Johnston.
Key stats
The Jaguars defense has been a rollercoaster throughout the year. They have forced turnovers in key spots but have struggled without them. The rush defense has been a bright spot from the defense, ranking 5th in touchdowns and 11th in yards per attempt allowed. The pass defense has been particularly bad, coming in as one of the worst units in the NFL. They currently rank 28th in yards, 30th in touchdowns allowed, and 2nd in interceptions. It is an opportunistic defense, but with Travis Hunter out for the season and Jourdan Lewis missing his second straight game, the secondary will once again be heavily compromised.
A big reason for the pass defense struggling as much as it has is the lack of a pass rush. The Jaguars are tied for last in total sacks with just 12. This lack of help up front has placed a ton of pressure on the secondary to execute, and it has not been working.
On offense, the once strong running game has not been as it was at the start of the season. Ranking 14th in yards and 17th in yards per attempt, the focal point of the offense has now become just average. Travis Etienne has not cracked the 100-yard mark since Week 4 against the San Francisco 49ers. A big reason for this has been the lack of carries. Etienne is averaging just 14 carries per game since Week 4, with only one game above 20. If the offense is to get back to its early-season strength, the run game must be used more frequently.
A big story in this game will be the quarterback matchup. In the 2022 playoff game, Lawrence got the shine for a heroic comeback win, but since then he has not been the same player. Lawrence's numbers are down across the board, with many being the worst of his career since his rookie season. The poor quarterback play has reflected in the statistics as well. The Jaguars rank 19th in passing yards and 27th in passing touchdowns through 9 games. Travis Hunter is out for the season, and Brian Thomas Jr.'s status for Sunday is still up in the air, but Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers stepped up in week 10 and look to continue to be reliable targets.
Situational football has hurt the Jaguars all season long, in particular 3rd downs and the red zone. The Jaguars offense ranks 26th in 3rd down percentage, while the defense ranks 30th. In the red zone, both the offense and defense rank 25th in touchdown percentage.
Penalties have been a massive hindrance. Whether it is in the flow of the game or crucial situations, the penalties are a backbreaker. The Jaguars average the most penalties in the league per game at 9.2 and have accounted for the 2nd most penalty yards at 698.
On the Chargers side of things, they have survived despite a laundry list of injuries. Quarterback Justin Herbert has been the engine of a pass-heavy attack, leading the league in pass attempts and completions. This has led to one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, ranking 7th in yards and 6th in touchdowns.
The only downfall to the offense has been pass protection. The injuries to star tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater have been huge, and the numbers show it. They have allowed the 5th most sacks with 34, with 11 of them coming over the last two games.
Despite a slew of injuries, the Chargers have remained a good running team, ranking 10th in yards and 11th in yards per attempt. One of the Chargers best attributes offensively is long sustained drives. They rank 2nd in average time and plays per drive and 3rd in yards per drive.
Defensively, the pass defense is excellent, ranking 5th in yards allowed, 3rd in touchdowns, and 6th in interceptions. The rush defense has been the defense's weak link. They come in at 13th in yards allowed, 26th in yards per attempt allowed, and 18th in touchdowns.
For the season, they rank 18th in turnovers, only forcing them in 5 of their 10 games. However, they come in bunches. In 3 of the 5 games the Chargers have forced a turnover; they have forced 3 turnovers. Similarly to how the offense sustains long drives, the defense gets off the field quickly. On a per-drive basis, they rank 6th in time of posession, yards, and 8th in plays run. While their offensive line has been struggling, the defensive line has not, coming in tied for 5th in total sacks at 29. The pass rush has been the key to their success through 10 games.
The Jaguars biggest weakness has been situational football on 3rd down and in the red zone. For the most part, this has been a strength for the Chargers. The offense ranks 2nd in 3rd down percentage, while the defense ranks fourth. In the red zone, the offense ranks 26th in scoring percentage, while the defense is 3rd.
Keys to victory
With so many moving parts at the skill position for the Jaguars offense, it will be tough sledding against an elite Chargers defense. So far, their biggest weakness has been stopping the run. Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten must combine for at least 30 carries. This will give the Jaguars the best chance to score, limit turnovers, and help sustain long drives that keep Justin Herbert and the offense off the field, something the Jaguars failed to do in the 4th quarter in week 10.
The pass rush has struggled mightily this year, with Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker greatly disappointing. Against a beat-up Chargers offensive line, they have a chance to rectify some of their struggles. If the pass rush fails to get home with 4-man fronts early, blitzing may be the best option.
This could lead to explosive plays, but with the playoff window slipping away, chances will have to be taken. With a blitz-heavy defense, this could force a rushed throw or decision that leads to a turnover, which is what the defense has done best.
Conclusion
This may be the last chance the Jaguars have to stay in the playoff picture. With so many injuries on both sides of the ball, this will be a tough game to win. Because of this, we may see the most aggressive and loose version of the 2025 Jaguars. The key will be to protect the football, keep Justin Herbert off the field, and get after him as much as possible. With the season on the line, this will tell us a lot about the Jaguars in the short and long-term future.