The Jaguars will take on the Chiefs in a Monday Night Football showdown in week 5. This game presents an opportunity for the Jaguars to make a statement across the league and an opportunity for the Chiefs to get back on track.
Patrick Mahomes is 5-0 against the Jaguars in his career, but this is arguably the best Jaguars team he has faced, with his least talented team. This game will be a battle of strengths between the Chiefs offense and Jaguars defense. Jacksonville's defense leads the league in turnovers with 13, while the Chiefs have turned the ball over just once.
While Kansas City's offense is not a prolific one, they do control the clock and sustain long drives. On a per-drive basis, the Chiefs rank 3rd in time of posession, 1st in plays run, and 5th in yards and points. This is also the Jaguars strength. On a per-drive basis their defense ranks 1st in time of possession, 5th in plays, 11th in yards, and 5th in points allowed.
The biggest area of concern for the Chiefs is complete lack of a run game. Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco combined are averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt, have not had a rush of longer than 12 yards, and are each being outrushed by Patrick Mahomes. On the flip side, Jacksonville is 4th in yards allowed and 9th in yards per attempt allowed. Because of this, teams have thrown the ball much more, which has led to mixed results.
Turnovers have been the defense's staple through 4 games, leading the league with 9 interceptions. However, teams have found success against the secondary as well. They rank 24th in yards allowed and 19th in touchdowns allowed. So far the turnovers have balanced this out, but can it be sustained against such a careful team?
Travon Walker being out could present major problems for the pass rush. Liam Coen has stated he is day-to-day, but coming off surgery and playing within a week's time is unlikely. So far, the pass rush has not been great, ranking 23rd in the league with just 7 sacks, with 2 coming from Walker. On top of this, wide receiver Xavier Worthy coming back will completely change the dynamic of the Chiefs offense. If they fail to establish a run game early, we may see a heavy passing game for Mahomes. A heavy passing attack combined with a lack of a pass rush could present problems for the Jaguars if they are not able to force a turnover.
Now let's take a look at the other side of the ball for both teams, starting with the Jaguars offense. It has been a rollercoaster to start, with some incredible flashes that show the offense's potential, but also some brutal lows that show there is still a lot of improvement needed. Luckily, the offense's strength is the Chiefs biggest defensive weakness, the running game.
Jacksonville ranks 4th in yards and 6th in yards per attempt, with Travis Etienne leading the league in yards per attempt. The Chiefs on the other hand have struggled in this area, ranking 22nd in yards allowed and 28th in yards per attempt allowed. With the Chiefs offense being ball-control heavy, Liam Coen will have to combat this by doing the same thing. Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten should combine for at least 30 carries in this game. Not only is this the Jaguars most effective form of offense, but it also minimizes risk from Trevor Lawrence.
Through 4 games, things have been shaky for the former 1st overall pick. Things have not been perfect around him, with wide receivers dropping passes and consistent penalties that stall drives, but there is still a lack of consistency from Lawrence. So far he has only been sacked 3 times in 4 games. Luckily, Kansas City ranks right in the middle at 15th in sacks so far.
When given a clean pocket, Trevor has been excellent, but when pressure hits and he is forced to go off script, he still has a tendency to get jittery feet and force a tightly covered pass. He will be going against a defense that is on the edge of elite, ranking in the top 8 in yards and touchdowns allowed, as well as interceptions. This will be a big chance to show if he is truly ready to take the next step, with a championship-caliber opponent on a national stage.
Dyami Brown has been a limited participant in practice once again. If he were to miss week 5, this would put much more on Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter to perform. So far, the duo has combined for just 282 yards on 25 receptions. Not the start fans were hoping for from the two, but this is a huge chance at a breakout game. With the Chiefs struggles in run defense, this could open things up for the pair. Safeties and linebackers will play much closer to the line of scrimmage to stop the run, which could leave room for Thomas Jr. and Hunter to operate, especially off of play action.
There is a lot riding on this game in terms of current momentum as well as divisional standings going forward. With the Colts off to an unexpected 3-1 start, every game matters, and what better way to put yourself at the top than a statement win against a dynasty? A 4-1 start to the season would be the franchise's best since 2007. Can they step up in weight class, or is the hype premature?