Jaguars Vs Colts preview
The Jaguars will host the Colts in week 14 in the biggest game for both teams this season. With both teams having an 8-4 record, this will be a massive game for the division and AFC playoff standings.
Key stats
The story of the 2025 Colts has been the revitalization of Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor having a historic season. Despite being 20th in attempts, the Colts rank 6th in rushing yards, 1st in touchdowns, and 1st in yards per attempt, with Jonathan Taylor leading the league in 6 statistical categories. Safe to say, the Colts strength is running the football.
Jonathan Taylor's historic season has helped a ton in the career resurgence of quarterback Daniel Jones. The Colts passing attack ranks 7th in yards and 11th in touchdowns and interceptions. In the last three weeks, the Colts have thrown for less than 200 yards in all three games after not doing that once all season.
On key downs and the red zone, the Colts have excelled, ranking 11th in 3rd down percentage, 4th in fourth down percentage, and 7th in red zone percentage. Their ability to stay on the field and capitalize inside the red zone is why they have been such an efficient offense all season.
For the season, the Colts offense has been nothing short of elite, ranking first in points per drive, 2nd in yards per drive, 2nd in points per game, 4th in first downs, and 4th in yards. However, in three of the last four games, Jonathan Taylor has had under 100 rushing yards on 4 yards per carry or less. This has led to the Colts averaging just 18 points per game in their three losses.
On defense, much like the Jaguars, the Colts have been all over the place. Their pass defense ranks 27th in yards but is 10th in touchdowns allowed and 4th in interceptions, forcing a turnover in all 12 games they have played. When it comes to stopping the run, they are one of the best units in the league, ranking 7th in yards and yards per attempt allowed.
They have struggled to get off the field on third down, ranking 27th, but are great at getting off the field on fourth down and in the red zone, ranking top 10 in both categories. The total numbers do not appear great for the Colts, allowing the 21st most yards, 4th most first downs, and third most plays per drive, but they can shut down the run, force at least one turnover per game, and can get off the field on critical downs, which has allowed them to hold every opponent under 30 points this season. With no Sauce Gardner on Sunday, it will be interesting to see how the Colts pass defense plays, even in adverse weather.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars passing attack has been up-and-down all season. Trevor Lawrence has turned the ball over at an alarming rate but has still managed to bounce back countless times and keep the Jaguars in the game. For the season, the Jaguars passing attack ranks 21st in yards and 22nd in touchdowns.
The running game has been inconsistent as well. Games against the Chargers and Cardinals show what they are capable of doing at their best, but then there are games against the Titans and Texans where it is seemingly impossible to run the ball. The Jaguars rank 11th in yards, 19th in yards per attempt, and 5th in touchdowns running the football.
On third downs, the Jaguars have been one of the worst teams in the league, ranking 26th in conversion percentage. On fourth down and in the red zone, they have been above average, ranking 11th in fourth down percentage and 13th inside the red zone. The inability to stay on the field has been a problem all season, but they have been just consistent enough to stay in the game on fourth downs and in the red zone.
On defense, it is the same story it has been all season. The Jaguars have one of the worst passing defenses in the league, allowing the 23rd most yards and 27th most touchdowns, but have forced the 2nd most interceptions and 8th most fumbles. The run defense has been their biggest strength, allowing the fewest rushing yards and the 8th fewest yards per attempt.
On third downs and in the red zone, they have been bad, coming in at 21st in third downs allowed and 23rd in touchdowns allowed in the red zone, but are fourth best on fourth down.
Keys to victory
All week the forecast has called for up to one inch of rain on gameday. Chances are, neither team will throw the ball more than 20 times. This game will be a battle of running backs against elite run defenses. The key for both teams will be playing a safe, low-risk game. Trevor Lawrence has a long history of fumbling the football, so it will be imperative for him to be extra protective of the football in wet conditions.
Parker Washington, Arik Armstead, and Travon Walker are all listed as questionable heading into Sunday's game. If neither Armstead nor Walker can play, it could be a detrimental blow to the Jaguars run defense. Without Parker Washington, Lawrence will be without an extra safety net receiver, and the Jaguars will lose out on potential punt returns.
With so much on the line in this game, weather and injuries will be a factor for both teams. It is going to come down to who can stand up in the face of a brutal game late in the fourth quarter. Can the Jaguars win another ugly game and get ahead in the division race?