How the AFC South looks with 4 games left
The Jaguars sit in first place in the AFC South with a 9-4 record, 1 full game ahead of the Houston Texans with an 8-5 record. With the Colts on the verge of a collapse and the Chiefs nearly out of the playoff picture entirely, the Jaguars have a clear shot at the playoffs, but they are not out of the woods yet.
The remaining four games for the Jaguars feature three extremely winnable games against the Colts, Titans, and Jets. However, they face the Denver Broncos in Week 16 on the road. The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL and have won 9 straight games, making this an extremely difficult game. The Texans on the other hand, have arguably an even easier schedule.
Houston will face the Cardinals, Raiders, Chargers, and Colts to finish the season. They are also on a 5-game winning streak with wins against the Bills, Colts, Chiefs, and Jaguars. The Texans have quietly gotten hot at the right time, and with the difference in schedules, it could spell trouble for the Jaguars hopes at winning the AFC South.
Just used the ESPN playoff machine.
— DJ Bien-Aime (@Djbienaime) December 8, 2025
Based on schedule there's a chance the Jags & Texans finish 12-5. This is most likely how the division plays out if that happens.
The Jags can lose to the Jets next week, but if beat the Broncos, Colts and Titans they'll win the AFC South.…
A cold reality for the Jaguars is that this is far from the 2022 season, where they could win the division with 9 games. There is a very real possibility they could win 12 games and still come in second place in the division, meaning they will have to go on the road for their first playoff game.
While the Jaguars control their own destiny, it will not be easy, and they will most likely have to win out to win the division. Given what we have seen from this group, it is certainly possible. The race for first begins this week against the Jets at home in week 15.