Jaguars vs Broncos preview
The Jaguars will face the Denver Broncos in their biggest and toughest game of the season. Both teams are on big winning streaks and are playing their best football at the right time, making this matchup all the more intriguing.
Key matchups
The big matchup will be how Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars handle the Broncos elite defense. Denver is on pace for a historic pass-rushing season, leading the league with 58 sacks with 3 games to go. Trevor Lawrence is playing arguably the best football of his career, throwing 9 touchdowns in his last three games, but he has not faced a defense quite like the Broncos.
The last defense of this caliber the Jaguars faced was their games against the Seahawks and Rams in weeks 6 and 7, both of which were offensive struggles. High-level pass-rushing teams have given the Jaguars offensive line problems all season, allowing 3 or more sacks in 5 games and 5 or more sacks in 3 games. On the road against a top pass-rushing team, this will be a big test. Over the past few weeks, we have seen Lawrence make plays outside the pocket when pressured, which gives hope for how he will handle the Broncos ferocity.
One way to combat the pass rush is to run the football effectively, keeping things unpredictable. This will likely be a big problem for the Jaguars, as they have been one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL since week 10, averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt, which ranks 28th in the NFL in that span. The Broncos defense is stout in this area, ranking 2nd in rushing yards allowed and 3rd in yards per attempt allowed. The Jaguars will be in a lot of 2nd/3rd and longs; how they combat this will be the deciding factor in the game.
With Brian Thomas Jr. drawing the matchup against reigning defensive player of the year Patrick Surtain II, Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and Travis Etienne will have to step up in the passing game. In week 15, Travis Etienne caught 3 passes for 73 yards and 3 touchdowns. Against a top pass-rush, we could see Etienne used on quick passes to get easy yards. Newly paid wide receiver Jakobi Meyers will have an immediate opportunity to live up to his contract. Meyers has changed the Jaguars offense with his middle-of-the-field presence, and he will need to continue his excellent play for the Jaguars to win.
Situational football has been a struggle for the Jaguars, ranking 25th on third downs and 13th in the red zone. The Broncos defense ranks first in both, providing a massive challenge for the Jaguars offense. As we discussed earlier, the pass rush and running game will determine if the Jaguars can stay ahead of the sticks, but arguably their biggest deterrent in this area has been penalties. The Jaguars lead the NFL in penalties and are 2nd in penalty yards, which has been an Achilles heel in stalling promising drives. The Jaguars will have to be their most disciplined selves to stay ahead of the chains.
Both the Broncos offense and Jaguars defense have been inconsistent units all season, showing flashes of great play at times while being frustratingly inept at others. Much like the Jaguars, Denver's struggles stemmed from an inconsistent rushing attack once J.K. Dobbins went down, inconsistent quarterback play from Bo Nix, and penalties, committing the second most penalties and recording the most penalty yards. Despite this, Bo Nix and the Broncos offense have been at their best over the past four weeks, averaging 27 points per game, with Bo Nix having 6 total touchdowns.
The Broncos have proven they can win a close but ugly game, leading the NFL with 5 fourth-quarter comebacks and 6 game-winning drives, as well as taking control of games early like they have done the past two weeks. The Jaguars defense has been extremely inconsistent, allowing inferior offenses to dominate themn but have showin the ability to shut down playoff-caliber opponents in the Chargers and Colts.
They live and die by turnovers and their run defense, forcing the 2nd most interceptions and total turnovers, as well as allowing the fewest rushing yards. Their biggest weakness has been their pass defense, allowing the 20th most passing yards. A big reason for this has been the lack of pass rush, ranking 26th in the NFL with 28 sacks. Against the Broncos, this will be a big problem, as the Broncos have allowed the fewest sacks with just 17.
The Jaguars best chance on defense is to get the Broncos into 2nd/3rd and long by stopping the run early on. RJ Harvey is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry on the season, and is facing the number 1 rush defense in the NFL which will likely put the Broncos in obvious passing situations. Combine this with the Broncos committing penalties, and they will have a chance to either force a punt or create a turnover. Should this game be decided in the fourth quarter, something will have to give between the Broncos offense and Jaguars defense. The Jaguars have forced the 2nd most turnovers in the 4th quarter, while the Broncos have won with 6 game-winning drives.
Conclusion
This is the biggest game of the season for both teams. With a loss, the Jaguars could potentially lose out on the AFC South title, forcing them to go on the road in round 1 of the playoffs. With a win, they would solidify themselves as a potential Super Bowl contender, establish themselves as a legitimate threat in the AFC, and reach their highest win total since 2007. The Jaguars control their own destiny, and this is the first step in taking it.