Jaguars vs Bills round 1 preview
The Jaguars will host the Bills in round 1 of the 2026 NFL playoffs. The two teams came into the season with wildly different expectations but now meet with one game to decide their fate.
Both teams have excellent quarterbacks that can change the way the game goes on any given play. Josh Allen finished the season with 39 total touchdowns, 1 ahead of Lawrence's 38. On paper, the quarterbacks are a relative draw. The deciding factor for both these teams will be on the ground.
The Bills rushing attack is the best in the NFL, ranking first in attempts, yards, touchdowns, and 2nd in yards per attempt. James Cook led the NFL in yards and finished 6th in touchdowns with 12, just 2 behind his quarterback Josh Allen with 14. On the other side of the ball, this has been their biggest weakness on defense all season. The Bills allow the third most rushing yards, second most touchdowns, and third most yards per carry.
The Jaguars are the exact opposite on both sides of the ball. On defense, the Jaguars allow the fewest rushing yards, 8th fewest touchdowns, and 5th fewest yards per carry. After a hot start on the ground early in the season, the Jaguars rushing attack has fallen off a cliff, ranking 20th in yards and 27th in yards per attempt. While they have the 4th most rushing touchdowns, this is largely due to Trevor Lawrence leading the team in rushing touchdowns with 9.
In the secondary, both teams are considerably different as well. The Jaguars pass defense is the most attacked pass defense in the NFL while allowing the 11th most passing yards, and the 18th most passing touchdowns. They have made their living by being opportunistic, forcing the 2nd most interceptions and turnovers in the NFL. In all but three games, the Jaguars defense has forced at least one turnover and has forced multiple turnovers in 10 games.
While the Bills defense can get turnovers, it is not their strong suit, forcing the 11th most interceptions and the 15th most total turnovers. They have been passed on the 2nd fewest in the NFL, while allowing the fewest passing yards and 6th fewest touchdowns.
The battle of both team's rushing attacks will play a big factor in time of possession. The Bills offense and defense are both first in time of possession per drive. The Jaguars defense ranks 4th in time of possession, and they will aim to limit James Cook's impact on the game as much as possible. While the Jaguars offense is just 16th in average time of possession, this is their best chance to control the clock. The passing attack is their best strength, but running the ball against the Bills defense will be their best chance at success, as well as keeping Josh Allen off the field.
Conclusion
For the first time in three seasons, there will be postseason football in Jacksonville. This will be the most anticipated game of the weekend, as both teams have Super Bowl expectations. The Jaguars come into the game riding an 8-game winning streak, looking to add to it over a Bills team with the most dangerous quarterback in the playoffs. Will Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars put the league on notice against a perennial AFC contender? Or will the Bills take their first step in reaching the Super Bowl in a Mahomes-less AFC?