Jaguars vs Titans week 18 preview
The Jaguars will host the Tennessee Titans in week 18 with an opportunity to clinch the AFC South and cement one of the most successful regular seasons in franchise history. A win would also give the Jaguars their third sweep over the Titans over the last 4 seasons, giving them a 5-1 record in the division.
The Jaguars last matchup against the Titans went as well as you could hope for against a division rival on the road. The Titans took an early 3-0 lead, but the Jaguars would outscore them 25-0 the rest of the game. Since then, the Titans have averaged 26 points per game, with Cam Ward throwing 8 touchdowns to just 1 interception. All this is to say, this game will be no cakewalk for the Jaguars.
In their first matchup, Trevor Lawrence took advantage of the Titans struggling secondary, throwing for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns. This was the start of his excellent streak of games. What gets lost in this game, however, is the Jaguars lack of a run game, as well as Trevor Lawrence playing under duress. Against a below-average run defense, Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten combined for 45 yards on 20 carries, and Trevor Lawrence was sacked 3 times.
Despite the Titans struggles on defense, they have the 11th most sacks at 41 and get an average pressure rate of 36.1%, the 15th most in the NFL. On the Jaguars side of things, they allow the 10th highest pressure rate at 37.7%, according to Sharpfootballanalysis.com. If the Titans can continue to stop the running game and put the Jaguars offense in obvious passing situations, they have a capable enough pass rush to get after Trevor Lawrence.
The biggest hindrance to the Jaguars offense all season has been penalties. The Jaguars are the most penalized team with 125 penalties, which has consistently held them back from putting together drives. Over the last 4 games, the Jaguars have improved, committing just 21 penalties in this stretch. Against an improving offense, this will be the key to not letting the Titans hang around.
Jakobi Meyers had his best game of the season against the Titans, catching 6 passes for 90 yards and a touchdown. Over the last two weeks, defenses have taken note of his impact, holding him to just 10 catches for 84 yards. Because of this, Parker Washington emerged with back-to-back 100-yard games. With teams now having to take Washington into account as well, this will only open things up for Brian Thomas Jr. and the rest of the offense.
Even with the Titans improved offense, they have still struggled on third downs, ranking dead last in conversion rate. On fourth down, they aren't much better, ranking 25th. While the Jaguars 3rd down defense is below average at 22nd, they are a top 4 unit on fourth downs. In a game where the Titans have nothing to lose, they could go for it on fourth down throughout the game, so the Jaguars will have opportunities to get off the field and gain momentum.
The biggest problem plaguing the Titans offense has been the offensive line, allowing a league-leading 55 sacks. The Jaguars are not a great pass-rushing team, totaling just 31 sacks on the year, but they blitz at a relatively high rate. According to
Sharpfootballanalysis.com,
the Jaguars blitz at the 15th highest rate in the NFL at 25.8%. Against the worst offensive line in the league, we could see the Jags look to put heavy pressure on Cam Ward.
Not only has Ward taken the most sacks in the NFL, but he also leads the league in fumbles with 11 and fumbles lost with 7. Jacksonville's defense has been known for their opportunistic nature when it comes to interceptions, forcing the second most in the league. Quietly, however, they have also forced the 7th most fumbles in the NFL as well. All these factors could lead to the Jaguars getting multiple takeaways, setting up their offense with good field position and momentum.
Conclusion
This game has massive stakes for the Jaguars current playoff run, their momentum, and the fanbase. For the third time in four years, they have a chance to win the AFC South by defeating the Titans in week 18. Against an improving Titans team with nothing to lose, this game has danger to it, and the Jaguars must be careful not to let the Titans hang around.
Should the Jaguars win, it would be the highest win total for the franchise since 1999, making it a monumental season and turnaround. In addition, they would host a home playoff game in round 1 of the playoffs, matching up against either the Texans, Bills, or Chargers. In a hat and t-shirt game against a division rival, week 18 will be a pivital week for the Jaguars in the short term.