Week 17 preview
The Jaguars will go on the road to face the Colts in a rematch from Week 14. The Jaguars dominated the game from start to finish and took control of the AFC South. They will look to continue their hot streak and sweep the Colts for the first time since 2023, as well as winning 12 games for the first time since 2005.
Key matchups
Trevor Lawrence had one of his best games of the season against the Colts, throwing for 244 yards and two touchdowns. The Colts pass defense has been the weakness of their team all season, allowing the second-most passing yards in the league, and in their most recent game, allowing 5 touchdown passes.
In the first matchup between these two teams, Tim Patrick and Brian Thomas Jr. had their best games of the season. The Colts secondary struggles with bigger vertical threats, which will allow for Thomas and Patrick to work along the sidelines, with Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington catching passes over the middle of the field.
While the Colts struggle in the back end, they have been one of the best run defenses in the NFL, allowing the 5th fewest yards and 3rd fewest yards per attempt. This has slowly become a weakness for the Jaguars offense as well, with their lead back Travis Etienne rushing for more than 4 yards per attempt just once since the bye week. Against the Colts in their first matchup, they were still able to score efficiently despite rushing for just 3.5 yards per attempt.
Philip Rivers will be the Colts starting quarterback and will be a total wildcard. Through two games, Rivers has lived off his IQ and processing speed but lacks any mobility and deep ball arm strength. The Jaguars have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, allowing the fewest yards and the 6th fewest yards per attempt. In their first matchup, the Jaguars held Jonathan Taylor to just 74 yards on 3.5 yards per attempt. According to
Sharpfootballanalysis
, the Jaguars run the 5th lowest percentage of a heavy box. This allows them to stop the run while not sacrificing extra players in the defensive backfield, forcing longer passing situations.
Sharpfootballanalysis
also points out the Jaguars rate of zone coverage, which is the 5th highest in the league at 79.4%. Their play style intends to keep everything in front of them and not allow the deep play. This is exactly how Rivers plays at his current age, and he will aim to get the ball out quickly to not get hit. Against this Jaguars pass rush, this should not be a problem, as they have just 29 sacks on the season, the 8th fewest in the NFL, and a pressure rate of 36.2%, which ranks 15th.
With this style of play being a strength of Rivers, the Jaguars may need to force a turnover. This has been a strength of theirs, as they have forced the 6th most fumbles and 2nd most interceptions. In two games, Rivers has two intereptions and two fumbles, so the Jaguars may have a chance at getting a game-changing turnover.
Conclusion
This game will not be an easy one, as the Jaguars have only won in Indianapolis twice since 2013. Trevor Lawrence has been on fire as of late, and will look to continue his hot play against a struggling Colts secondary, while Philip Rivers will look to exploit the Jaguars zone defense. The big test for the Jaguars will be stopping Jonathan Taylor from wrecking the game. With the AFC South still up for grabs, this is a crucial game for the Jaguars to win the AFC South and keep their momentum rolling heading into the playoffs.